Angels Dust

Ok, not that I wrote Brandon Wood’s name with waterproof ink on the lineup card for 2008, but 2 for 26 with zero walks and eleven strike-outs worry me very, very much, even if it’s spring training. With the lone two hits both being home runs, it looks like he is trying too hard from afar. Is it the pressure to secure a job?

I have been awfully quiet lately (and will mostly remain so until the new season starts due to being completely swamped with work and studies), but I thought I write my own HOF ballot because it might be interesting what someone who has never seen any of those guys play (and for the most part, has never heard of them when they were active) thinks of their HOF-worthiness.
First though, I should say a few words about my reasoning(s): I think stats are the most important part when it comes to the HOF, but there are also other things like contemporary perceptions, character (in theory, because I hardly know any of these players) and historical role. Also, while I do think it is important to look at a players environment like the stadion he played in, these things should not overshadow the actual performance. If a player won 300 games with a mediocre ERA, he still won those 300 games, just like a hitter who hit 500 home runs at Fenway Park has still hit 500 home runs. He might have been lucky or benefitted from things beyond his control, but what happened counts, not what might, could or should have happened (Neil Armstrong was the first man on the moon, even if Buzz Aldrin might have had the same “skill” as he did). That does not mean that those who were unlucky or hampered by things beyond there control should be punished for that. That being said, I don’t think any of these things mattered much this time.

So without further delay, my ballot with a few words of reasoning:

In:

• Bert Blyleven - 5th all time strike outs, 13th all time innings pitched, 9th all time shutouts. Seriously, how it that guy not in yet???
• Rich Goosage - Just looking at the numbers, I don’t really see why he belongs. 1981 was magic, but is a career 126+ ERA good enough for a reliever to get in? Not alone, but being the pioneer of the closer role counts for something for me, so he’s in.
• Tommy John - Very tough call. Compiled many of his best seasons in the offense starved 60s which make his ERA look better than it is (compared to Blyleven, for example). Overall, he pitched very well in the postseason (6-3, 2.65 ERA) and he has the surgery named after him, which - again - counts for something in my world. I never understood why it’s Blyleven or John. For me it’s Blyleven and John.
• Tim Raines - His hitting alone would not be enough to get him in, but 808 steals with a success rate of 84.7% give him a big boost. He’s in.

Out:

• Brady Anderson - 50 home runs season out of nowwhere, three other pretty good seasons, not nearly enough.
• Harold Baines - Long and strong career, 2866 hits, 1628 RBI, 120 career OPS+. But for an outfielder and DH, that’s not enough.
• Rod Beck - Exceptional seasons in 1992 and 1993, but no chance.
• Dave Concepcion - I wish I knew more about his defense, but his hitting was rather weak (career 88 OPS+), so unless he was a wizard on defense, he’s out.
• Shawon Dunston - Shortstop who hit like Conception, but without the gold gloves. His 212 stolen bases (in 294 tries - 72%) don’t help that much either.
• Andre Dawson - Really low OBP and his career OPS+ of 119 is one point below Baines. However, his six gold gloves indicate he was a much better defender. Then again, there are other outfielders on the list with better offensive numbers who don’t the call. Dawson’s out.
• Chuck Finley - 200-173 record, solid ERA (3.85), 2610 strike out. That’s the Hall of the very good for him.
• Travis Fryman - Not nearly a good enough hitter (103 career OPS+) to get in despite a gold glove at third.
• David Justice - Very good hitter (129 career OPS+), but played during the steroid era (to be fair, he had his first monster season in 1990, four years before the estimated start of the tainted time), but his career was a little too short to merit induction.
• Chuck Knoblauch - Pretty good hitter for a second baseman and he also got a gold glove. However, like Justice, he did not play long enough to make me think longer about him.
• Don Mattingly - An offensive force (127 OPS+) with a ton of gold gloves (9) at first. Again hurt by a relatively short career.
• Jack Morris - He won 254 games and had six seasons with ERA+ of 120 and better. But he also had seven season when his ERA+ fell under 100. He was could dominate and be dominated (or so it seems to me). Overall, he did not show the consistency and his career 3.90 ERA is just way too high to get in.
• Dale Murphy - Very impressive peak from 1982 to 1987 and there are five (deserved?) gold gloves, but not much else in the other years of his career. Is that really enough? Tough call, but I’m afraid it is not.
• Robb Nen - Three very impressive seasons (284, 264 and 210 ERA+), but ten years is not nearly enough for a reliever.
• Dave Parker - Had five great years and three gold gloves, but overall not enough consistency. His career .339 OBP and 121 OPS+ are just not that good.
• Jim Rice - Another outfielder with a very potent bat. However, I don’t see anything that gives him an edge over the other sluggers I left out.
• Jose Rijo - Who?
• Lee Smith - Tough call for me. Better career ERA+ than Gossage (131+), but bad in the postseason (in only 5.1 innings, to be fair). In the end, he only had two really dominating seasons (1982 and 1990) and pure consistency does not get you into Cooperstown as a reliever.
• Todd Stottlemyre - He was a solid, but unspectacular pitcher. Should not get any votes.
• Alan Trammell - Very, very tough call. Hit very well for a shortstop (110+ OPS), was pretty good on defense, too (4 GG) and just great in the postseason. He is certainly better than some shortstops already in the Hall, but that’s not the best argument. My reluctance to put him in might have something to do with the great hitting shortstops I’m used too see play, but Trammel also seems to be inferior to Barry Larkin. I might change my vote on him later when I can better assess shortstop of that era.

Need more time to think about:

• Mark McGwire - Actually, I don’t need more time to think about McGwire. His numbers and his role in the revival of the sport after the strike clearly merit induction. Then again, he most likely took steroids and his showing before congress was really embarrassing. But I think the Hall is a museum and guys like McGwire (or Pete Rose or Bonds) should be in it. How about you give him (them) a plaque, but don’t invite him (them) to give a speech?

The other Miguel is gone, too. Is there anyone else of note available? We can’t possibly go into the season with five outfielders, but who the hell is there that would help us? Or can Juan Rivera play third base?

Now that M-Cab is gone, what are the Angels going to do? With the overcrowded outfield and the surplus pitching, it is a given GM Tony Reagins is not done yet. Does that mean we’re going to play a role in the Santana bidding or is Miguel Tejada already on the way over? As sad as that sounds, he is probably the best bat available now. On the plus side: it looks like we can enjoy Howie hitting for a while now.

Like everyone else, I was a very surprised to find out the Angels signed Torii Hunter to a 5-year, $90M contract. With Vlad, GA, $50M dollar mistake man GMJ*, On-Base-Wonder Reggie Willits and Juan Rivera, the outfield seemed to be overcroweded already. So what was Tony Reagins thinking? Lets check pros and cons:

Cons:

• Torii Hunter is on the wrong side of 30 and declining.
• $18M per year is way too much and five years too long (I’m just having a deja vu).
• The signing pushes cheaper options (Willits, Rivera) too the bench.
• Hunter’s defense is not as good as it used to be.
• Hunter’s is a free swinger who does not walk much

Pros:

• Hunter has more power in his bat than anybody on the team besides Vlad (and maybe GA on good days).
• He did not cost us anything but money.
• He makes Rivera, Willits and maybe Morales available for trades.
• He pushes Vlad and GA into part time DH duties.
• He might push GMJ* into the 3.5th outfielder spot

Overall, I think it is safe to say that Hunter does make the team better in the short run, although not as much as A-Rod would have, obviously, and as I wrote in my post-mortem, the Angels window of opportunity is open right now and if the moves increase the chances of winning a championship within the next two years, I’m all for it. Cheap players are nice and all, but if you can get better by spending some money, why not? As much as I like to see the Angels contend year in and year out, I’m willing to give up the 2010-2012 seasons (which is hardly a given, who know what are 30 millions worth in baseball in three years?) for real shots in 2008 and 2009. Hunter is not the big impact player we have all been waiting for, but he is an upgrade and we have to face the fact that there are simply no big bats out there in free agency since A-Rod took himself off the market and the Halos also do not have any outfield options from within emerging, so Hunter was the best option available for money.

Right now, the signing of Hunter makes the team slightly better now and therefore alone, this move deserves some praise. What would really makes this move ingenious is if Juan Rivera or Reggie Willits will be part of the trade that sends Miguel Cabrera to Anaheim.

Unfortunately, I don’t have the time to comment on the recent Cabrera-Garland trade as long as I would like to (maybe on the weekend, but only maybe), but overall, I think the Angels made a solid deal here, although personally, I’m sad to see O.C. leave.

Anyway, the day before yesterday, I actually dreamt that the Angels traded for Tejada. I have never dreamt about baseball before and I certainly don’t think it means anything, but I wish my subconciousness could come up with a little more inspriring than Tejada and his .799 OPS.

My Indians post-mortem is online.

I haven’t been posting much lately, but the play-offs fell right into my exam phase and after the disappointing ALDS, there was not that much to write about.

Anyway, I wrote the Angels post-mortem for At Home Plate:

2007 Season Postmortem: The Los Angeles Angels Of Anaheim

The Red Sox have decided to take the extra off-day, which means that the #1 and #2 starters can go on full rest twice in the ALDS. On the first glance, this seems to be a disadvantage for Boston because it allows the Halos to go with Lackey and Escobar twice and skip the #4 starter Saunders (or Santana) altogether. The Red Sox’ ace is Beckett, but who else will they start twice? Dice-K or Schilling? My guess is that Boston is already looking ahead to the ALCS with their decision and they want to give their probable opponents less rest.

Anyway, this decision works in the Angels favor both in the ALDS and in a potential ALCS, so lets take this as a good omen for the postseason. Go Angels!

here we come. At least this way, we most likely clinch at home.

And now back to work.