Where is the hitting?
Friday, May 11th, 2007In short:
a) in Vlad’s hand
b) missing in action otherwise
In long:
Measured by the new sexy batting runs above average (BRAA), the Angels have the eight best hitter in the majors at 14.81 (guess who?) and them number 60 at 3.82. That’s Gary Matthews Jr.* , by the way. Not exactly worth $50 millions, but imagine where the Angels would be without him. Checking in at 66 is OC with 2.82, and he’s the last regular who actually contributed with the bat. After this trio, there is the concentrated underwhelmingness of Howie Kendrick (-0.15), Reggie Willits (-0.80), Robb Quinlan (-1.46), Erick Aybar (-1.64), Casey Kotchman (-1.71), Maicer Izturis (-2.17), Jose Molina (-4.74), and Mike Napoli (-6.14), decorated with the complete ineptitude of Garret Anderson (-9.05) and Shea Hillenbrand (-9.08). Are the Angels really complaining they are missing the bat of GA? Where would his .263/.265/.389 help?
By the way, as a team, the Angels have accumulated 20.58 negative batting runs above average. In other words, a team of only league average hitters would have scored 20.5 more runs than the Angels have.
If we look at win probability added (WPA), or clutch hitting in other words, things looks equally grim. Vlad checks in at number 6 in the majors with 1.70 (about 3 and a half win), followed by a long stretch of nothing and then again GMJ* at 80 (0.12) and OC at 89 (0.07), so both together have contributed less than a half win. But at least they contributed something, as the other Angels all have negative WPA, lead again by Garret Anderson (-0.82) and Hillenbrand (-1.06), who as a pair managed to cancel out Vlad’s clutch hitting all by themselves.
Overall, the team checks in with -2.14 WPA, or a little more than 4 losses thanks to not hitting when it matters.
The solution?
Pray for Juan Rivera and then pray some more. Kendry Morales, while his three hits in eight at-bats already put him second on the team in WPA and third in BRAA, simply is not ready yet as his .287/.302/.372 line from AAA show. He was better than that last year, but his .875 OPS does not say that he dominated AAA pitching back then. He could probably match Hillenbrand’s pathetic .225/.248/.245, but I think it’s in the best interest of the team if he gets send back to Salt Lake and teams up with Brandon Wood for another season.
How about a trade? While that would be a good idea, I have not come across a name that is available and could really make difference (and could be had for a reasonable price). I just don’t see anybody coming over to Anaheim LA anytime soon.
